Modeling
Understand the landscape and target the right people.
Learn more
Opinion research for every race on the ballot
We help candidates win races they normally shouldn’t.
Winning starts with knowing what the people voting actually want. Upset Research finds that out early enough in the cycle to act on it. We work on every race on the American ballot: President, United States Senate, United States House, Governor, Mayor, County Commission, City Council and School Board.
Photograph: Unsplash
Areas of Expertise
Four services and the two commitments that sit under all four. Every engagement is built around the question one campaign needs answered.
Insights
Reach the people who decide the race and find out what they actually think.
Learn moreStrategy
Turn what people said into what the campaign does next.
Learn moreBespoke Tech Tools
Custom tools built for one campaign's specific problem.
Learn moreResearch Method
Every study runs the same documented steps, and the steps are written down before any fieldwork starts.
Learn moreProfessional Standards
What this firm will claim about a number.
Learn moreWhat you get
Three of the things a campaign receives: a precinct level target model, a message test readout and a turnout tracker built for one race. The examples below show the format each one arrives in.
Illustrative sample
Precinct level target model
Where the persuadable vote sits, block by block, with a count attached to every block and the assumptions behind the count written out.
See the formatIllustrative sample
Message test readout
Which of five closing arguments moved which part of the electorate, how far it moved them, and which ones did nothing at all.
See the formatIllustrative sample
Turnout tracker built for one race
A single screen the campaign manager opens each morning, built around one campaign's data rather than a product sold to everyone.
See the formatFrom the blog
What the results say about how seats changed hands, written for the people who run campaigns.
- What the Uncalled Races Tell You About How Close Control Actually Was 11/04/2026
- Seven Senate Flips: What Those States Had in Common 11/04/2026
- Candidate Recruitment Is the Variable Operatives Keep Underrating 11/04/2026
- Down Ballot as an Early Signal, and Why Almost Nobody Reads It 11/04/2026
- What Both Parties Should Take Into the 2028 Cycle 11/04/2026
Tell us about your race.
Send the office, the election date and what you have set aside for research. We write back with what we would do, what arrives each month and what it costs.
A person reads every one of these and replies by email.